Recent polls for Pennsylvania’s first congressional district show Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick holding a narrow margin over Democratic challenger Christina Finello.
The two polls indicate the two candidates face stiffer competition from each other than they did from their primary opponents.
One poll shows Fitzpatrick leading 45 to 44 percent. PoliticsPA states the poll comes from House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC.
The poll, which surveyed 403 potential voters, showed an even race when taking into account undecided voters. 6 percent are undecided, but another 3 percent are undecided and leaning toward one candidate over another.
Of this 3 percent, most are learning toward Finello. This puts the Fitzpatrick and Finello tied at 46 percent.
Victoria Research conducted this poll between June 7-14 with a “± 4.9% margin of error at the 95% confidence level.” They targeted “active registered voters who voted in either the 2016, or 2018 General Elections, or have registered since the 2018 General.”
Another poll commissioned by Finello’s camp shows Fitzpatrick with a two point lead. The lead is 40 percent to 38 percent with more than 20 percent undecided.
This second poll surveyed 753 potential voters on two days, June 10 and 11. It has a 3.6 percent margin of error.
While both polls show similar results, they are internal polls. As PoliticsPA states, “the results should be taken with a grain of salt.”
Additionally, polls in the first congressional district have not always been reliable.
A New York Times poll from 2018 showed then-candidate Scott Wallace with a seven point lead over Fitzpatrick just three weeks before the election. Fitzpatrick then won by more than two points, for nearly a 10 point swing.
Analysis from PoliticsPA Managing Editor John Cole indicates Fitzpatrick’s name will help him in the 2020 General Election despite the district heavily leaning toward Biden for the presidential bid.
“These numbers show that while the district is trending blue, the Fitzpatrick name remains strong in PA1. Democrats have long targeted the seat, which on paper is their most favorable pickup opportunity in PA. But Brian and his brother, the late Mike Fitzpatrick, frustrated those efforts cycle after cycle.”